Odds and Probabilities: Playing Draws Part 2

February 15, 2014 by Davida Mintz

Are you the type of player who won’t lay down a draw? Does your gut have you convinced that the next card to appear will be the one you’ve been waiting for? While even “The Magician,” Antonio Esfandiari, isn’t capable of such spot on prediction, he’s undoubtedly among the world’s best poker pros. You don’t win nearly $26 million without skill, cunning and an understanding of odds and probabilities.

Esfandiari actually won the biggest tournament of his life thanks to a missed draw. It was the last hand of the 2012 WSOP Big One for One Drop: the first super high roller charitable tournament worth $18.3 million.

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Esfandiari drew 7-5 and opened the pot. Esfandiari had a commanding chip lead over Sam Trickett, who made the called.  Esfandiari smashed the flop: Jd-5d-5c. Now, a 75 percent favorite with three of a kind, it felt like the right time to place a bet with the intention to push his chips in the middle pre-flop add put Trickett all in for his tournament life. Trickett turned up fired back, re-raising twice before snap calling and turning over Qd-6d. With dss on the board… a flush draw.

Trickett was one diamond away from living the dream, but a statistical dog. A heart came on the turn and another on the river. It was over for the Englishman, who had plenty to celebrate. A $10 million plus second prize in the first $1 million dollar buy-in tournament in history is a once in a lifetime achievement.

Antonio Esfandiari had taken down the largest prize in tournament history: $18.3 million. He’s never fallen off number one of the highest winners, and never stops playing poker.

Embedded below is a link to a YouTube video of this amazing poker hand.  Have a look, listening closely to the way the commentators analyze the play and refer to poker odds and probabilities.  Then, continue reading as I discuss how we should analyze our hands this way to become better Five-O Poker players.

How can learning about poker legends make you a better Five-O Poker player? By taking the time to break down hands play by play while factoring the odds the players face going into the hand. As new information becomes available, we learn to adjust stats and think about whether an alternate move may have been more profitable. The more familiar you become with odds and probabilities, the easier it will be to make decisions while playing Five-O Poker.

Next time, I’ll teach you how to change the variables so you can learn to grasp the odds of scenarios you will come across frequently. Instead of teaching you the mathematical equations used to determine equity, I’ll show you how I do it easily on a program that’s free to download.

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